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Prediction for CME (2015-11-04T14:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-11-04T14:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9643/-1
CME Note: CME is connected to a M3.7 flare at AR 12443 very close to disk center, GOES light curve is a long duration event, with extensive post-event loops visible in AIA 131. Large, fast wave emanating from flare site, dimming to the west and north of the AR in AIA 193, dark absorption material ejected at west end of AR seen in AIA 304
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-06T17:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -87
Dst min. time: 2015-11-07T08:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-11-07T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

A partial halo CME was first seen by CACTus in LASCO/C2 imagery on 04 November at 14:24UT. This CME was associated with the M3.7 flare produced by NOAA 2443 (peaking at 13:52UT). This active region was located near disk centre at the time of the eruption. A Type II radio burst was observed by the Humain Radio Observatory and Sagamore Hill, indicative of a shock speed of 955 km/s. CACTus calculated a plane-of-the-sky speed for the CME of 563 km/s and a width of 166 degrees. An analysis of the LASCO/C2 imagery seems indicative of a slightly larger speed and width. Both the coronagraphic and EUV imagery also seem to indicate that the bulk of this CME is directed to the southwest (under the ecliptic and away from Earth).

Based on these preliminary findings, a glancing blow is likely to arrive at Earth on 07 November around 04:00UT (+/- 12 hours). Active geomagnetic conditions to major storming (Kp = 4 to 6) are expected. These predictions will be finetuned upon availability of further data and modeling results.

Starting around 16:00UT, also a slight enhancement of the greater than 10MeV proton flux was observed. However, current (21:00UT) flux levels are around 0.5 pfu and thus well below the proton event threshold (10 pfu).

Lead Time: 43.92 hour(s)
Difference: -10.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yihua Zheng (GSFC) on 2015-11-04T21:39Z

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